Thursday, January 3, 2008

Zogby Poll: Obama Only Candidate

Able to Beat ALL Republicans
Telephone survey shows fellow Democrats Hillary Clinton

and John Edwards would defeat some GOPers, lose to others

UTICA, New York - Illinois Sen. Barack Obama would defeat all five of the top Republicans in prospective general election contests, performing better than either of his two top rivals, a new Zogby telephone poll shows.
His margins of advantage range from a 4 percent edge over Arizona Sen. John McCain and a 5 percent edge over Arkansas’ Mike Huckabee to an 18 percentage point lead over Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, the survey shows. Against New York’s Rudy Giuliani he leads by 9%, and against Fred Thompson of Tennessee he holds a 16 point edge.
The telephone survey included 1,000 likely voters nationwide and carries a margin of error of +/– 3.2 percentage points. The poll was conducted Dec. 12–14, 2007.
Democrat Hillary Clinton of New York would defeat Romney by a narrow 46% to 44% margin and Thompson by a 48% to 42% margin. She would lose to Huckabee 48% to 43%, to Giuliani 46% to 42%, and to McCain by a 49% to 42% margin. The data suggest that Clinton has improved her position slightly. A November Zogby Interactive poll showed her losing by small margins to all five of the top GOP candidates.
The performance of the Democratic candidates among independent voters is notable. For instance, Clinton trails Giuliani by one point (43% for Giuliani, 42% for Clinton among independents), but Obama leads Giuliani among independents by a huge 56% to 31% edge. Edwards leads Giuliani, 52% to 38% among independents. Clinton has similar trouble among independents against McCain, in that she trails with 37% support to his 46% support. In a prospective Obama versus McCain match–up among independent voters, Obama leads, 51% to 35%. Edwards and McCain are tied at 42% apiece among independents.
As among independents, Obama is the Democrat moderates like best, but his edge among moderates over Edwards is not nearly as pronounced as with independents. For instance, against McCain, both Edwards and Obama lead, but Clinton loses badly. Obama leads McCain by a 51% to 37% edge, while Edwards leads McCain by a 47% to 41% margin.
Clinton loses to McCain among moderates, with McCain winning 51% and Clinton winning 38%.
In polling stretching back to last year, Zogby International has identified moderates and independents as key voting demographics in the 2008 election cycle.
Among Republicans, McCain performs the best among moderates in the general election match–ups, with Huckabee running a close second. Romney and Thompson run worst – in prospective contests against Obama, the Democrat leads Thompson 59% to 27%, and leads Romney by a 62% to 23% margin. Obama leads all five Republicans among moderates. Against Clinton, McCain and Huckabee lead among moderates, while the Democrat leads the other three Republicans.
For a detailed methodological statement on this poll, please visit: